This summer has seen extreme temperatures across the globe, with the UK having the warmest June ever recorded (smashing the previous record by 0.9ºC) and extreme heat across the US, China and Europe, with the ongoing heatwave providing a nightmare vision of the future and wildfires resulting in the evacuation of thousands of UK holidaymaker in Greece. Meanwhile, we see political pushback on even moderate pollution reduction proposals such as the upcoming extension to London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) and the climate crisis descending into a culture war via Grant Shapps’s foolish interventions – he would be better advised to address his government’s failings set out in the June 2023 IPCC Climate Change report. The evidence of climate change is all around us and we can no longer afford to kick the can down the road. In July 2019 I wrote the bulk of the blog below, which sets out the impact of global temperature rises of 1ºC up to 6ºC, we are currently at 1.15ºC I have now updated the blog with additional information added in bold and including a section on the UK government’s progress on combatting climate change. Time is running out.
As a child completely obsessed with all things weather related, I first came across the concept of ‘global warming’ while reading a book that contained a chapter entitled ‘Fire or Ice?’ At the time there was actually some uncertainty about which type of climate emergency we were heading for, as there was a view among some scientists that the planet may be heading towards a ‘mini ice age’, as temperatures had been falling from a peak reached in the 1940s.
Since first reading that chapter all those years ago global temperatures have shown a steady rise – and this rise has also been matche by an alarming rise in CO2 levels.
CO2 levels were approximately 338 particles per million (ppm) in 1980. By 2019 this had risen to 415 ppm with the rate of increase rising (in June 2023 these atmospheric CO2 levels had risen to 423ppm) These levels of CO2 are the highest levels seen for over 14 million years and the rise has taken place in less than two hundred years, an infinitesimally small time in geological terms.
There are a number of challenges in dealing with the issue of rising CO2 levels:
Unlike pollution from cars or heavy industry, CO2 is not visible and doesn’t have any immediate effects on our health or our daily lives. Humans are effective at dealing with immediate and tangible threats to our way of life or existence. However, rising CO2 levels in our atmosphere are not perceived as a ‘clear and present danger’.
Fossil fuel energy companies spend vast sums of money to influence politicians at the highest levels of government to play down the effects of CO2 emissions and to continue to receive tax breaks for fossil fuel extraction. The International Monetary Fund estimated that the global production and burning of coal, oil and gas was subsidised by $5.9 trillion in 2020 and an analysis of Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development figures claims to show that Britain currently supports the fossil fuel industry through tax breaks and subsidies for exploration and research and development to the tune of £10 billion a year.
Effective action against climate change will require significant changes to our way of life which may be unpopular among voters. Any political party pushing an effective CO2 emission reduction agenda risks losing political support, while parties that take a less hard-line approach are likely to prove more popular, but won’t deal effectively with the problem.
By the time we see the most significant changes resulting from climate change, it will be too late to stop the catastrophic changes in upcoming years – we cannot adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Some argue that the global economic system is not sustainable in its present form if we want to effectively combat climate change.
The Paris Agreement of 2015 aimed to pursue efforts to limit temperature increases to +2.0ºC above pre-industrial levels (with an aspiration to achieve a 1.5ºC limit) although the signatories could not reach an agreement on when emissions have to peak.
Global temperature has already increased by around 1ºC, (as of 2022 it has risen by 1.15ºC) so these limits already seem extremely ambitious and likely to be exceeded. The question seems to now be how close we can keep temperature increase as close to 2ºC as possible.
However, before looking at what is possible let’s take a look at how a warming world potentially affects life on Earth at between 1º and 6ºC of warming.
+ 1º Centigrade
A warming of +1ºC does not mean that the globe warms up equally across its surface. As we already approach this level of warming we are finding significant variations in the level of rise, which is particularly pronounced in arctic areas such as Greenland, Alaska and Antarctica. This has resulted in the significant reduction of sea ice particularly in the summer months, as well as causing entire lakes to drain away into the ground as the permafrost underneath them thaws.
The reduction in sea ice creates the first tipping point: warmer temperatures melt the snow covered ice (which reflects more than 80% of the sun’s heat that falls upon it) and is then replaced by the darker open ocean (which absorbs up to 95% of the incoming solar radiation) warming the sea and making it more difficult for ice to re-form during the next winter. At current rates of ice melt, we are heading for a summer ice-free Arctic between 2030 and 2050. In 2023 sea ice in Antarctica has reached its lowest extent since records began.
This warming of the Arctic is likely to lead to significant changes in the weather patterns of the mid-latitude areas such as the USA, Europe and Japan. The circulation of the atmosphere is governed by the contrast in temperature between the equatorial and polar regions. Excessive warming in the polar areas will reduce this contrast which will in turn have an effect on the jet streams which circulate the globe and influence our weather systems such as the ‘low’ and ‘high’ pressure systems that we see on the TV weather.
Small temperature rises also affect coral reefs already affected by overfishing, sewage and agricultural run-off. The number of ‘bleaching’ events where the algae is expelled from the coral polyps is on the increase and the death of the coral occurs unless the waters cool again quickly. A warmer world at this level will present challenges, but will not exceed our ability to adapt.
+ 2º Centigrade
So how do increased CO2 and increased temperatures affect us in a +2ºC world? Around half of the carbon dioxide released every time we jump on a plane ends up being absorbed by the oceans. Ocean chemistry is complex and being slightly alkali allows many animals and plants to build calcium carbonate shells. However, CO2 dissolves in water to form carbonic acid. This increased acidity means that by around 2050 large areas of the ocean will become effectively toxic to organisms with calcium carbonate shells. Go above the levels of CO2 which would produce a +2ºC rise and most of the world’s oceans will eventually become too acidic to support calcareous marine life.
This will affect plankton, perhaps the most important plant resource on Earth, as an essential part of the food chain of numerous species from mackerel to humpbacked whales. Their calcium carbonate structure makes them especially vulnerable to ocean acidification, essentially dissolving them. Phytoplankton are crucial to the carbon cycle, removing billions of tons of carbon from circulation as their limestone shells rain down on the ocean floor. As the oceans turn more acidic there will be fewer plankton to remove the carbon in the oceans, increasing the problem even further. Warmer surface waters also stop the upwell of cooler nutrient-rich waters that the phytoplankton need to grow. These two factors mean we are potentially altering the entire chemistry of the oceans, without any idea of the consequences.
A 2ºC rise will mean summers across Europe like those in 1976, 2022 and this summer, will become the norm rather than the exception, devastating crops, causing wildfires and increasing mortality among vulnerable people unable to cope with the excessive heat. This heat also stresses plants, causing them to emit carbon dioxide rather than absorb it, adding to the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere.
The Greenland ice cap contains enough water in its three-kilometer thick bulk to raise global sea levels by around seven metres. Climatologists have put a figure on Greenland’s critical melt threshold at regional warming of 2.7ºC. Due to polar amplification warming occurs at a far faster rate in polar latitudes and a global warming figure of 1.2ºC would result in the above regional threshold being crossed.
At this point, we could potentially get another positive feedback loop due to ‘albedo-flip’ caused by wetter, darker ice absorbing more energy increasing melting rates. This could result in far greater sea level rises than 26 to 82 cm by 2100 as predicted in 2013 by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This in itself is a higher rise than the same Panel’s projection, made just six years earlier in 2007 of an 18 to 59 cm rise.
+ 3º Centigrade
If governments meet their current pledges it is forecast that there will still be an average global warming of 2.7ºC by 2100. *in November 2022 this forecast was reduced to 2.0ºC based on government pledges and targets. To go back to similar temperature levels we have to go back around three million years to a period of time called the Pliocene.
Analysis of sediments from this time, both in Antarctica and the Northern tip of Greenland, show shrub growth in the former and pines and conifers in the latter, hundreds of miles North of the current tree line. Analysis of fossilised leaves can identify the number of stomata which in turn indicate the levels of CO2 at the times the leaves were living. Fossilised leaves from the Pliocene period indicate concentrations of CO2 between 360 and 400 parts per million, a similar level to what we have reached today.
Estimates of global temperatures at that time place them at +3º C above today’s levels. A reminder that the current levels of CO2 are 415ppm and the rate is rising. Due to thermal inertia even if we stabilised CO2 concentrations immediately, the planet would continue to warm for centuries.
At the +3ºC level of temperature increase some very startling factors come into play such as the ‘carbon cycle feedback’. Warmer seas absorb less CO2 leaving more of it to accumulate in the atmosphere; warmer soils begin to emit stored carbon due to increased bacterial activity; the carbon cycle is reversed as vegetation starts releasing CO2 rather than absorbing it; the drying of peat in tropical rainforest areas such as Malaysia and the Amazon and resulting fires leads to extra CO2 entering the atmosphere. The Amazonia area contains half the world’s biodiversity and the Amazon river contains 20% of all the water discharged into the world’s oceans. Some models predict that the Amazon rainforest is doomed unless global warming levels are held at +2º C or below.
A +3ºC temperature rise will result in huge changes to the climate across the globe, with some areas being struck by super droughts and huge rivers such as the Indus being affected by the reduction in glacial run-off and snow melt. Climate change will affect crop yields, increasing in some areas, but with an overall reduction leading to food shortages. Population movements are likely to dwarf the current migration levels caused by wars or crop failures. These climate refugees are likely to spill into already densely populated areas and the current political pressures caused by migration will pale into insignificance in comparison.
+ 4 º Centigrade
Warming of +4ºC will have devastating effects across the globe and will put many of the World’s major cities such as Mumbai, New York and London in grave danger unless huge amounts of money are poured into developing new defences. Sea level rise will create refugees escaping from coastal areas. Our destruction of the rainforests will mean Earth’s natural defence mechanisms will have been severely weakened.
Global weather is likely to go increasingly haywire with temperature, drought and flooding extremes becoming commonplace. Temperatures in Europe will resemble those currently experienced in the Middle East. Drops in food production along with migration will put pressure on the political system struggling to cope with financial shocks caused by extreme weather events.
By this point, one of the most dangerous feedback loops comes into play. Around 1,400 billion tons of carbon are estimated to be locked into the arctic permafrost. As this permafrost thaws, vast quantities of carbon and methane (an even more dangerous greenhouse gas) will be released. The rate of release and the effects of this release are not yet fully understood but there will be increased plant growth in these areas that may offset some of the resultant rise in CO2 levels.
However, by the time we have reached a 4ºC rise, it is likely that the extra release of CO2 into the atmosphere may make a 5ºC rise more likely and this is where we reach the tipping point – and perhaps the most frightening feedback loop of all which is described in the next section.
+ 5º Centigrade
There is much disagreement among scientists about the potential effect of methane hydrates (an ice like combination of methane and water that forms under the intense pressure and cold of the deep sea) on global warming. However, geologists looking back 55 million years to the Paleocene period have found evidence of major deep-sea extinction events through sediment analysis from core samples from this era. These samples contained ‘dead zones’ and scientists have also found evidence of huge submarine landslides occurring at this time.
Warming of the oceans may cause the melting of these hydrates making them unstable and cause thousands of tons of methane to enter the atmosphere. Methane is 23 times more powerful than CO2 in terms of its global warming properties and could add to an unstoppable feedback of runaway global warming. This instability may lead to undersea landslides, which will have disastrous consequences for millions living in coastal areas as we have seen with recent tsunamis.
Records indicate that warming in the Paleocene period took place over approximately 10,000 years, giving plants and animals time to adapt to the change. As things stand this level of temperature change may take place in a hundred years, far too rapid for ecosystems to adapt both on land and at sea. This is likely to result in mass extinctions and as the habitable areas retreat to the poles, large scale developed human society would no longer be sustainable. Conflicts between migrants and those already present in these cooler areas are likely as the economic and social structures break down.
+ 6º Centigrade
A six-degree rise in temperatures would increase the severity of all the previously mentioned outcomes and turn the oceans anoxic as they are stripped of oxygen. Failure of the ecosystem to adapt to the temperatures would create food shortages and as society collapses population reduction is almost inevitable.
All the previously mentioned tipping points, the collapse of the Amazonian ecosystem and resulting soil carbon release, could add to the thawing of the Siberian permafrost adding more carbon to the atmosphere and adding more warming, which in turn increases the possibility of the release of methane hydrates resulting in even more global warming. The rate of increase in CO2 levels caused by human activity has never before happened on Earth. We are in grave danger of knocking over the first in a long row of dominoes, with no possibility of recovery.
How have we ended up on the brink of disaster?
This is difficult to set out briefly in a blog that aims just to give a flavour of the issue, but the answers can be summarised as follows:
Human nature reacts poorly to risks that don’t seem to pose an immediate threat, such as a war or a natural disaster.
The globalisation of the economy and the resulting mass exports of produce across vast distances has fed the fossil fuel and CO2 emission boom.
Deregulation of the corporate sector and deregulated capitalism. The ‘free market’ is seen by some as being incompatible with climate change mitigation. The current economic model demands expansion and increased consumption and the steps we must take are in direct conflict with the ‘grow or die’ ethos.
The influence, both financial and political, that the most polluting companies have over governments across the globe.
The steps required to halt the slide to disaster can be seen as restrictive on personal freedom or a barrier to the pursuit of profit. Therefore any political organisation that recognises the scale of the issue may temper its policies in this area to enable them to get elected to at least pursue some of the policies required. Unfortunately, all the evidence points to the reality that the time for a little tinkering around the edges has passed.
Emerging economies whose CO2 output is increasing are reluctant to stifle their growth to cut emissions when established economies had no such disadvantage during their development.
How do we fix it?
Tree planting needs to increase substantially to act as a ‘carbon sink’ for CO2 emissions. Currently, the UK target for tree planting (20,000 hectares per year) is being missed by a wide margin every year. * the 2019 Conservative Manifesto promised to plant 30,000 hectares of trees per year by 2025. Currently, they are significantly short of their target at only 12,700 hectares in 2022/23.
By placing restrictions on air travel. Another of the anomalies in the accounting of CO2 emissions by each country as part of the climate change agreements is that only domestic air travel is recorded. International air travel emissions have no ‘home’ and therefore, although they are recorded, are not included in any emission targets. Some have argued for a ‘frequent flyer’ tax where one trip per year could be a ‘freebie’ in terms of tax rates, but any additional travel will be severely taxed.
UK Carbon Emission Scenarios from UK Government Net Zero Strategy October 2021 – page 318
Some experts believe the ‘free market’ will be unable to address the challenge of climate change and that the dominance of corporations must be reduced and governments take the lead in a holistic approach to tackling climate change.
The era of disposable products must end and goods made, not only to be more energy efficient but also made to last.
By eliminating the reliance on the car, including electric cars, as a primary means of travel (with the phasing out of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030) by providing cheap public transit for all and safe alternatives for cycling and walking.
Replace into law the ‘zero carbon’ homes policy abandoned by the Conservative government in 2016.
By promoting research and development of Carbon Capture & Storage as it is currently absent in the UK and is a necessity to meet ‘net zero emissions’ targets by 2050. *Note that in the above table taken from the UK Government’s 2021 Net Zero Strategy, for an unproven technology greenhouse gas removal is doing a lot of heavy lifting to get us to net zero. ** The UK government has committed up to £20 billion to fund the development of Carbon Capture and Storage, but to date, no CO2 has been captured and stored in the UK.
By providing incentives for domestic green energy production such as solar power. These not only reduce the reliance on fossil fuels, but can also change cultural attitudes to power consumption as people are likely to become engaged in energy use when they are producing it on their own rooftops. All new buildings should have solar panels installed on available roofing and be retrofitted where possible.
By adoption of ‘the polluter pays’ principle on the oil and gas companies which have for many years been the most profitable in the global economy. This could be in the form of a ‘carbon tax’ along with higher royalty rates on fossil fuel extraction.
By promoting renewable energy production co-operatives run by the communities that use them. This would encourage ‘buy-in’ from local communities who directly benefit from them by selling their clean energy back to the grid. At this point, I will hold my hand up and admit I have been skeptical about onshore wind generation in the past, due to unfounded concerns about noise (we live approx 1 mile away from a 10 turbine windfarm) and localised benefits from local infrastructure would provide popular incentives to alter attitudes.
An end to ‘fracking’ as a means of extracting natural gas, which has been found to produce methane emissions that are 30% higher than those linked to natural gas. Further, methane is 34 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide.
We must stop extracting fossil fuels and end the significant subsidies to those who extract those fossil fuels.
Is the UK Government on track?
In June 2023 The UK Climate Change Committee reported to Parliament on the progress to date in reducing CO2 emissions as well as setting out policy risks and gaps and priority recommendations. There is a link to the full report in the ‘sources and further reading’ section below, here are some of the highlights:
the willingness of UK Ministers to embrace Net Zero, and accept a legal obligation to meet targets on that path, represented genuine leadership. However, the true test of leadership is delivery. And here, I am more worried. The commitment of the Government to act has waned since our COP26 Presidency. There is hesitation to commit fully to the key pledges. p8
We have backtracked on fossil fuel commitments, with the consenting of a new coal mine and support for new UK oil and gas production – despite the strong wording of the Glasgow Climate Pact. p13
We have been slow to react to the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU’s proposed Green Deal Industrial Plan, which are now a strong pull for green investment away from the UK. p13
The decision on the Cumbrian coal mine sent a very concerning signal on the Government’s priorities. The UK will continue to need some oil and gas until it reaches Net Zero, but this does not in itself justify the development of new North Sea fields. p15
No airport expansions should proceed until a UK-wide capacity management framework is in place to assess annually and, if required, control sector CO2 emissions and non-CO2 effects. p15
Tree-planting rates continue to be too low and are not increasing at the rate required. Rates will need to double by 2025 for the Government to reach its target of 30,000 hectares per year of woodland creation. p20
The UK has particularly missed opportunities to respond to the energy crisis with policies that both reduce emissions and cut household/business costs – policies that other countries implemented to increase their energy security. p57
To avoid low-income groups being locked out of the cost savings that low-carbon technologies will increasingly provide, the Government should consider targeted support for the take-up of key technologies such as EVs. p58
The Government has set out no plans to support the public to shift to a lower-carbon diet. p101
From 2010-2021, bus and rail prices increased by 80% and 43% respectively, significantly faster than inflation. By contrast, the cost of car travel rose by just 27%. Spikes in fuel prices and Government interventions to limit further growth in fares have reduced this gap during 2022 and early-2023. P114
Only 2.2 km of railway track was electrified in 2021/22.42 This is symptomatic of the current stop-start nature of network electrification, which is failing to deliver the infrastructure upgrades required. p127
In March 2023, the active travel budget received a substantial cut, with the £700 million allocated at Spending Review 2021, minus the £230 million already allocated, being reduced to just £100 million over the remainder of the period. The Government must restore the previously agreed funding settlement. p129
Installations of heat pumps across the UK must rise nine-fold in six years, from 69,000 per year in 2022 to 600,000 in 2028. The UK is not currently on track to hit this target.
We outlined in a letter to the then Secretary of State for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) on 24 February 2022 that increases in domestic oil and gas extraction would have, at most, a marginal effect on prices. The best way to reduce the UK’s exposure to volatile markets is instead to cut fossil fuel consumption through measures such as rapidly shifting to renewables, improving energy efficiency and electrifying end uses (such as heating, industry and transport). p222
The long-term price trend for rail travel shows a 32% increase on 2009 levels compared to a 10% decrease for short haul business flights. p271
Can we avoid disaster?
The fight against climate change presents many challenges, at an individual, political and corporate level.
While the UK government should be commended for setting an ambitious net zero carbon target, they mean nothing unless backed up by positive actions to achieve it. As Lord Deben, the Chair of the Committee on Climate Change stated in the Foreword of his July 2019 report to Parliament “The need for action has rarely been clearer… now do it.”
Further, while Lord Deben said in his Foreword to the June 2023 Climate Change Committee report to the UK Parliament that “the UK continues to avoid the polarised climate politics that plague other countries”, I believe we are seeing the first signs of this in our media and our politics. It seems that just when the early impacts of climate change are being felt in the UK, there is a concerted movement to deny the extent of the problem, or use it to stoke up division rather than concentrate efforts to put in place a fix.
After mulling over all the evidence gathered while researching for this blog it is very easy to reach the conclusion that we are beyond hope and there isn’t the political will to make the necessary changes. Further, on an individual level, it can seem that personal efforts to reduce CO2 emissions are inconsequential in the great scheme of things and we are doomed. However, it is individual changes repeated across society and the political pressure applied by individuals teaming up to fight for change that will go a long way to achieving success or condemn us to failure and a terrifying future. The colossal scale of the challenge does not absolve us from personal responsibility.
We may not succeed, but surely we must try.
Julian Vaughan
July 2019 – updated with recent data and additional links in July 2023
Sources and further reading
I have drawn heavily on the detail contained in the following books: Naomi Klein’s ‘This Changes Everything’ and ‘Six Degrees’ by Mark Lynas. I recommend that you read both of these books in full. Not used for this blog, but interesting reads on this subject are: ‘The Water Will Come’ by Jeff Goodell and ‘How Bad Are Bananas’ by Mike Berners-Lee which gives estimates on the carbon footprint of just about everything!
The website for the UK-based Committee on Climate Change is a very useful source of information:
Carbon Brief is another UK-based website providing extensive information on the latest in the science and policy decisions concerning climate change:
Record-breaking 2023 heat events are ‘not rare anymore’ due to climate change
IPCC 2023 Climate Change Report
UK Climate Change Committee – Progress in Reducing Emissions 2023 Report to Parliament
2023 Progress Report to Parliament
Modern Diplomacy – Free Market Capitalism and Climate Crisis
Free-Market Capitalism and Climate Crisis
House of Lords Library – Oil and gas Industry: outside interests
UK Government Net Zero Strategy October 2021
Climate Action Tracker Thermometer
Sea Level Rises Data
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels Data
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